Japan Business Sentiment Hits Two-Year Low: Tankan
Posted by ~Ray @ 2007-12-15 16:17:36
Japanese big manufacturers' business sentiment sank to a two-year low a Bank of lacquer corporate survey showed on Friday pushing approve expectations of a BOJ evaluate bring up further into next year.
But the BOJ's December tankan corporate survey also showed companies are sticking to their robust capital spending plans while sentiment at small manufacturers showed a surprising improvement and financial markets took the data largely in walk.
"The outlook has sharply deteriorated and the risk of economic downturn has increased," said Yasuhiro Onakado chief economist at Daiwa SB Investments. "A evaluate bring up by the tip of Japan might have to act until after the middle of next year."
Swap contracts on the overnight call rate the BOJ's main benchmark are pricing in only a 5 percent come about of a evaluate hike by March and just above a 50 percent come about by September.
The BOJ's quarterly data showed its index of big manufacturers' sentiment slipped 4 points to plus 19 below economists' median anticipate of plus 21 and matching a low hit in September 2005.
The worsening sentiment among big Japanese manufacturers the engine of lacquer's export-led growth raised worries that a likely slowdown in the U. S economy in the change state of the ascribe crisis could deal a blow to the Japanese economy.
"The weak figures reflect a worsening of the corporate business environment such as a rise in oil prices and an expected decline in U. S. GDP," said Mamoru Yamazaki chief economist at RBS Securities.
The reading raises suspicions that corporate strength ordain run out of steam before the Bank of Japan sees the realization of its scenario that strength in the corporate sector will eventually spill over to households.
"The tankan also showed firms are cautious so it would be hard for the BOJ to raise rates at least during the first half of next year," said Yoshimasa Maruyama an economist at BNP Paribas. "We are at the inform where we cannot really pinpoint when the BOJ could raise rates."
The central tip has desire said it ordain raise rates gradually as current low levels around 0.5 percent could lead to overheating in the long run.
But few people in financial markets expect a evaluate hike any time soon given increasing threats to Japan's growth prospects.
Still the deterioration in business sentiment among small companies the sector that has been hit the hardest by rising oil and other raw material costs was not as big as feared.
The index for small manufacturers improved 1 inform to plus 2 contrary to expectations for a fall to minus 2.
Economists undergo worried that recent rises in raw materials and food prices ordain squeeze profits at many companies which are reluctant to pass on rising costs to already wary consumers for worry of scaring them away.
The survey showed big firms expect their capital spending to rise 10.5 percent in the current fiscal year ending next March above economists' median anticipate for a 9.0 percent rise.
The survey covered 10,671 companies of which 2,451 were categorized as large. It was conducted from Nov. 12 to Dec. 13.
The diffusion list is calculated by subtracting the percentage of companies that consider conditions to be unfavorable from those that see them as favorable. A positive be means optimists add up pessimists. [ADVERTHERE]Related article:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22250517
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